Zijin Mining(601899) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-15 07:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Zijin Mining's Q1 2025 report shows a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 58.17% [3] - The company plans to produce 85 tons of gold in 2025, representing a 17% increase year-on-year, benefiting from rising gold prices and increased production [3] - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 413.6 billion, 465.6 billion, and 518.8 billion respectively [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Zijin Mining achieved an operating revenue of 789.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.76% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was 101.67 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 62.39% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 32.16% [3] - The company’s copper production increased by 9.49% year-on-year to 287,600 tons, while gold production rose by 13.45% to 19.07 tons in Q1 2025 [4] Price and Cost Analysis - The average selling price for copper in Q1 2025 increased by 3.27% year-on-year and 7.33% quarter-on-quarter, while the average selling price for gold rose by 40.07% year-on-year and 11.98% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The sales cost for copper increased by 7.57% year-on-year, and for gold, it rose by 12.62% year-on-year, influenced by declining ore grades and increased stripping ratios [4] Share Buyback Plan - On April 8, 2025, Zijin Mining announced a share buyback plan with a total fund of 600 million to 1 billion, aimed at employee stock ownership plans or equity incentive plans [5] - As of April 10, 2025, the company had repurchased 64 million shares, accounting for 0.24% of total shares, demonstrating confidence in future growth [5] Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 374.807 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 23.4% [6] - The expected diluted EPS for 2025 is 1.56, with a P/E ratio of 11.3 [6] - The gross margin is projected to be 20.5% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.0% [6]