JD(HK:09618) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-15 07:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][8] Core Views - JD Group is expected to benefit continuously from the national subsidy policy for replacing old products with new ones, and is actively extending its business boundaries by expanding into food delivery services [3][8] - The revenue for Q1 2025 is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year, with JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses expected to grow by 13%, 9%, and 5% respectively [2][4] - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 is estimated at 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.4% [5][6] Revenue Summary - For Q1 2025, total revenue is expected to reach 291.36 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year [6] - JD Retail's revenue is anticipated to grow by 14%, driven by double-digit growth in both electronic products and daily necessities, with the electronic category benefiting more from the subsidy [2][4] - The gross merchandise volume (GMV) growth is expected to be slightly weaker than revenue growth, primarily due to the high growth of the 1P model in the revenue structure [2][4] Profit Summary - The overall gross margin is projected to reach 15.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved gross margins across various categories and high-end 3C growth due to subsidies [5][6] - The adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 is forecasted to be 51.7 billion, 56.9 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 9% [3][8]