BABA(HK:09988) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-15 07:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report a 7% year-on-year revenue growth for Q4 FY25, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 13%. Revenue growth rates for various segments are projected as follows: Taobao (5%), International Digital Commerce (27%), Cloud Intelligence Group (20%), Local Services (12%), Cainiao (1%), and Entertainment (7%) [4][6]. - The company continues to focus on e-commerce and AI & cloud as its core businesses, while non-core businesses are undergoing cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The outlook for cloud revenue growth remains positive, driven by AI industry momentum [5][25]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 237 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase. The adjusted EBITA is projected to be 30.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26% [6][27]. - The adjusted EBITA margin is expected to increase by 2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the narrowing losses in non-Taobao businesses [6][10]. Segment Analysis - Taobao Group: Anticipated GMV growth of 4% year-on-year, with a focus on maintaining market share and enhancing supply quality. The take rate is expected to continue its upward trend, leading to a CMR growth of 9% [10][11]. - Cloud Intelligence Group: Expected revenue growth of 20% year-on-year, driven by increased demand following the introduction of Deepseek. The profit margin is expected to remain stable compared to previous quarters [14][17]. - AI Development: The company has launched several AI models and applications, including the flagship application Quark, which has reached 149 million MAU. Future developments will focus on enhancing reasoning capabilities and multi-modal integration [21][22]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 have been adjusted to 996.9 billion, 1,074.2 billion, and 1,156.6 billion yuan, respectively. The adjustments reflect a slight decrease due to competitive pressures affecting monetization rates [5][25]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2025 to FY2027 are set at 160.2 billion, 172.5 billion, and 188.3 billion yuan, with adjustments primarily based on expectations of profitability improvements in non-Taobao businesses [5][25].