PICC(SH:601319) HTSC·2025-04-15 09:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of RMB 8.10 and HKD 4.90 [8][9]. Core Views - The company expects a year-on-year increase in net profit of 30% to 50% for Q1 2025, driven by improved underwriting profits and significant growth in investment income [1]. - The property insurance sector is benefiting from a decrease in disasters, leading to a lower combined ratio (COR) estimated at 97.1% for 2025 [2]. - The life insurance segment is projected to see a stable growth in new business value (NBV) with an expected growth rate of 17% in 2025 [3]. - The company's investment performance has significantly improved due to optimized asset allocation, resulting in substantial investment income growth in Q1 2025 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to RMB 1.02, RMB 0.93, and RMB 1.01 respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on underwriting profits and investment performance [5]. Summary by Sections Property Insurance - The property insurance sector has shown improved underwriting performance, with a decrease in claims ratio due to fewer disasters, leading to a projected COR of approximately 97.1% for 2025 [2]. Life Insurance - The life insurance sector has experienced a slight decline in premium income by 2.6% year-on-year, but this is expected to mitigate risks associated with interest spread losses. The NBV is anticipated to grow by 17% in 2025 [3]. Investment Performance - The company has optimized its investment portfolio, with a significant increase in investment income in Q1 2025. The asset allocation includes 11% cash, 49% bonds, 14% equities, and 15% non-standard investments [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts upwards for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with target prices set at RMB 8.10 and HKD 4.90 based on DCF valuation methods [5].