BAMC(SH:601137) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-15 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33][37] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 5.06% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 18.655 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 20.47%, totaling 1.354 billion yuan, marking three consecutive years of positive growth since 2022 [1][9] - The decline in Q4 revenue and net profit is attributed to asset impairment provisions totaling 511 million yuan, including 164 million yuan for the Vietnam base and 347 million yuan for inventory write-downs [1][9] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.01 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 306 million yuan, which represents 30.02% of the 2024 net profit [10] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a total copper alloy product sales volume of 241,000 tons, an increase of 22.2%, with net profit from copper alloys reaching 436 million yuan, up 54.6% year-on-year [2][24] - The solar cell sales volume decreased by 20% year-on-year, but net profit in the new energy sector increased by 9% to 918 million yuan, driven by a reduction in processing costs [2][30] - The company is advancing key projects, including a 1GW component capacity expansion in the U.S. and a 3GW TOPCon battery project in Vietnam [3][33] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 27.705 billion yuan, 33.398 billion yuan, and 33.752 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48.51%, 16.53%, and 1.06% [3][35] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.470 billion yuan, 1.839 billion yuan, and 2.029 billion yuan, with growth rates of 8.60%, 25.08%, and 10.35% respectively [3][35] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 1.81 yuan, 2.27 yuan, and 2.50 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.8, 7.9, and 7.1 [3][35]