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金徽酒:公司事件点评报告:业绩表现稳健,结构有效升级-20250416
603919JINHUI(603919) 华鑫证券·2025-04-16 00:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The company's performance is stable with effective structural upgrades, showing a revenue growth of 3.0% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with net profit increasing by 5.8% [5] - The product structure has improved significantly, enhancing profitability, with a gross margin of 67% and a net margin of 21% in Q1 2025 [5] - The company is focusing on optimizing sales expenses and has maintained stable contract liabilities [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q1 2025, total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were CNY 1.108 billion, CNY 234 million, and CNY 231 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +3.0%, +5.8%, and +4.3% [5] - The gross margin and net margin improved by 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, reaching 67% and 21% respectively [5] Product Structure and Growth - Revenue from products priced above CNY 300, between CNY 100-300, and below CNY 100 were CNY 245 million, CNY 630 million, and CNY 221 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +28.14%, +14.24%, and -31.72% [6] - The company has seen a steady increase in market share within the province, with provincial revenue of CNY 857 million and out-of-province revenue of CNY 238 million, reflecting year-on-year growth of +1.05% and +9.48% respectively [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a positive trend in product structure upgrades and refined operations in the provincial market, with EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at CNY 0.81, CNY 0.90, and CNY 1.02 respectively [7][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24, 21, and 19 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]