QIANHE(SH:603027) HTSC·2025-04-16 01:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 13.20 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments in 2024, which has led to revenue pressure but is expected to enhance profitability in the long term. The net profit margin has significantly improved due to cost benefits and product structure optimization [4][3]. - The company has focused on high-quality growth, with expectations for continued recovery in operations following strategic adjustments made in 2024 [4][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items are projected to be 3.07 billion, 514.15 million, and 500 million RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.2%, 3.1%, and 5.1% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue is expected to be 790 million RMB, with a net profit of 160 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decline in revenue of 10.3% but an increase in net profit of 13.4% [1]. Cost Structure and Margin Improvement - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 37.2%, with a significant improvement in Q4 due to lower raw material costs and product structure optimization [3]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 is expected to reach 20.7%, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin for Q1 2025 is projected to be 19.3%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][1]. Strategic Adjustments and Market Performance - The company has strategically reduced the number of low-margin products and focused on optimizing its product offerings, which has led to short-term revenue pressure but is expected to enhance long-term profitability [2][4]. - In 2024, revenue from soy sauce and vinegar is projected to be 1.96 billion and 370 million RMB, respectively, with year-on-year declines of 3.8% and 12.5% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are forecasted to be 0.60 and 0.67 RMB, respectively, with an upward revision of 5% and 6% from previous estimates [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 99.9% in 2024, providing substantial returns to shareholders [2].