CATL(SZ:300750) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-16 04:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][22] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 net profit reached 13.963 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%. Revenue for the same period was 84.705 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year but down 18% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 24.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][9][20] - The company maintains a strong market position in battery shipments, with an estimated output of over 124 GWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 30% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%. The company holds a 38.2% share in the global power battery market as of January-February 2025, remaining stable year-on-year [2][20] - The company's profitability in battery production is improving, with an estimated non-GAAP net profit per unit of approximately 0.096 yuan/Wh in Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase. Future profitability is expected to remain stable due to increased capacity utilization and growing overseas customer demand [3][20] - The company is accelerating its layout in the battery swapping sector, having launched a new generation of flexible battery swapping solutions. Strategic partnerships with NIO and Sinopec aim to build a nationwide battery swapping network, with plans to establish at least 500 swapping stations by 2025, targeting 1,000 in the long term [3][21] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 66.202 billion yuan, 81.466 billion yuan, and 96.820 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 23%, and 19%. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 15.03 yuan, 18.50 yuan, and 21.99 yuan for the same years [4][5][22] - The company's revenue is forecasted to be 429.579 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 18.7%, followed by 533.281 billion yuan in 2026 and 629.901 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 24.1% and 18.1%, respectively [5][23]