东鹏饮料：25Q1收入利润超预期，增长势头强劲-20250416

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][8] Core Views - The company reported strong growth in Q1 2025, with revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 4.848 billion, 980 million, and 959 million yuan respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 39.23%, 47.62%, and 53.55% [4][5] - The gross margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 were 44.47% and 20.21%, showing improvements of 1.7 and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The company expects additional revenue contributions from new large-sized packaging products in 2025, while cost advantages from sugar procurement are anticipated to weaken in the latter quarters of the year [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 267.58 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 139.1 billion yuan [3] - The company has a total share capital of 520 million shares, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.83 [3] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved sales revenue of 4.863 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.75% [5] - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 20.485 billion, 25.336 billion, and 30.526 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with respective growth rates of 29.34%, 23.68%, and 20.49% [10][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.500 billion, 5.731 billion, and 7.024 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 35.28%, 27.33%, and 22.57% [10][11] Product and Channel Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from energy drinks, electrolyte drinks, and other beverages reached 3.901 billion, 570 million, and 375 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.71%, 261.46%, and 72.62% respectively [6] - The company’s distribution channels generated revenues of 4.283 billion, 457 million, 104 million, and 1 million yuan from distributors, key accounts, online, and other channels, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.13%, 62.83%, 54.18%, and a decline of 83.13% [6]