CATL(SZ:300750) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-16 09:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][22] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 net profit reached 13.963 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%. Revenue for the same period was 84.705 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year but down 18% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 24.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year and 1.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][9] - The company maintains a strong market position in battery shipments, with an estimated output of over 124 GWh in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 30% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%. The company holds a 38.2% share in the global power battery market, stable year-on-year, and a 28.8% share in the overseas market, up 1.9 percentage points [2][20] - The company's profitability is improving, with a non-GAAP net profit per unit of approximately 0.096 yuan/Wh in Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase. Future profitability is expected to remain stable due to increased capacity utilization and growing overseas customer demand [3][20] - The company is accelerating its layout in the battery swapping sector, having launched a new generation of battery swapping solutions. Strategic partnerships with NIO and Sinopec aim to build a nationwide battery swapping network, with plans to establish at least 500 swapping stations in 2025, targeting a long-term goal of 1,000 stations [3][21] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 66.202 billion yuan, 81.466 billion yuan, and 96.820 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 23%, and 19%. The expected EPS for these years is 15.03 yuan, 18.50 yuan, and 21.99 yuan, with dynamic P/E ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [4][5][22]