百合股份：2024年年报&25Q1季报&收并购公告点评：收购事项落地，海外蓝图已现-20250416

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the acquisition of Oranutrition Limited will enhance the company's overseas expansion strategy, with the target company expected to contribute to the consolidated financials as a subsidiary [3][8] - The company has experienced a temporary pressure on gross profit margins due to changes in product category structure, leading to a slight downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3][8] - The report indicates a recovery in both contract manufacturing and proprietary brand businesses in Q1 2025, with notable growth in certain product forms such as powders and functional drinks [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from 871.25 million RMB in 2023 to 801.40 million RMB in 2024, before rebounding to 1,144.30 million RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.79% [3][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease from 169.07 million RMB in 2023 to 139.31 million RMB in 2024, with a subsequent increase to 174.11 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 24.98% [3][9] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 2.64 RMB for 2023, 2.18 RMB for 2024, and 2.72 RMB for 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.78x for 2025 [3][9] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 42.94 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 2,748.16 million RMB [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.68 and a net asset value per share of 25.59 RMB [6][7] Business Operations - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to facilitate the acquisition of a 56% stake in Oranutrition Limited, which specializes in contract manufacturing of nutritional products [8] - The target company reported revenues of 4.228 million NZD and a net profit of 612.6 thousand NZD in 2024, with a net profit margin of 14.49% [8]