QIANHE(SH:603027) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-16 10:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Qianhe Flavor Industry (603027) [1][6] Core Views - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 3.073 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit at 514 million, down 3.1% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is facing short-term pressures but is actively adjusting its operations, with expectations for gradual improvement in revenue in the second half of 2025 [6][7] - The target price is set at 14.7 yuan, with the current price at 11.77 yuan, indicating a potential upside [2][6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3,073 million, 3,032 million, 3,289 million, and 3,529 million respectively [2] - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -4.2% for 2024, -1.3% for 2025, 8.5% for 2026, and 7.3% for 2027 [2] - Net profit estimates are 514 million for 2024, 543 million for 2025, 596 million for 2026, and 655 million for 2027, with growth rates of -3.1%, 5.6%, 9.8%, and 9.9% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.50 yuan for 2024, 0.53 yuan for 2025, 0.58 yuan for 2026, and 0.64 yuan for 2027 [2] Operational Insights - The company has experienced a decline in revenue due to increased competition and a high base from the previous year, with specific product categories like soy sauce and vinegar seeing significant drops [6][7] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 5.0 yuan per 10 shares, yielding a dividend rate of 4.13% [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 37.2%, with improvements expected in the latter half of the year due to cost reductions and product adjustments [6][7]