开立医疗（300633）：2024年承压，2025年增长可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 2.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.02%, and a net profit of 142 million yuan, down 68.67%. However, growth is anticipated in 2025 as hospital tenders recover and new products are launched [1][10] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The ultrasound segment is expected to recover in 2025 due to the resumption of domestic tenders and the launch of new products. In 2024, the ultrasound segment's revenue declined by 3.3% due to a high base and slow tender recovery. The company has made significant advancements in high-end products, including the launch of the S80 and P80 machines, which are expected to drive growth in 2025 [2] - The digestive endoscopy segment is projected to see high growth in 2025 as domestic tenders recover and domestic replacement accelerates. The company has seen significant revenue growth in this segment from 2018 to 2023, and new products like the HD-650 are expected to enhance market presence [3] - The surgical and vascular intervention products are expected to contribute to long-term revenue growth, with new products being commercialized and significant revenue growth anticipated in 2024 [4] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024 is projected at 63.8%, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin is expected to recover in 2025 as tenders resume and new products are launched, following a significant decline in 2024 [5][9] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.393 billion yuan, 2.883 billion yuan, and 3.374 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.83%, 20.46%, and 17.04%, respectively. Net profit forecasts for the same period are 335 million yuan, 537 million yuan, and 636 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 134.93%, 60.49%, and 18.48% [10][12]