中国建筑：现金分红比例稳步提升，关注中长期投资价值-20250416

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [7][18]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2,187.15 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.46% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 461.9 billion yuan, down 14.88% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to intensified competition in the construction market and a deep adjustment in the real estate sector [1][4]. - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio to 24.29%, up by 3.47 percentage points year-on-year, with a corresponding dividend per share of 2.715 yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.05% as of April 15 [1][4]. Revenue and Orders - In 2024, the company signed new construction contracts totaling 40,808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. The revenue breakdown shows that the building construction, infrastructure, and design services generated revenues of 13,218 billion, 5,509 billion, and 108 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.5%, -1.0%, and -7.9% [2][4]. - The company’s focus on industrial buildings and public facilities has led to a significant increase in new contracts, with industrial buildings alone accounting for 7,216 billion yuan, a 16.0% increase year-on-year [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 9.86%, a slight increase of 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 2.87%, down 0.38 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company reported a cash flow from operations (CFO) of 157.74 billion yuan, an increase of 47.43 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 102.38% [3]. Financial Forecast - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 475 billion, 487 billion, and 500 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision from previous estimates [4].