HLGF(SH:600346) HTSC·2025-04-17 03:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 19.43 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in net profit for the year, with total revenue of RMB 236.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.04 billion, up 2% year-on-year [1][5]. - The fourth quarter performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 58.54 billion and net profit of RMB 1.94 billion, showing significant quarter-on-quarter growth [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from new project contributions and a gradual recovery in the petrochemical and polyester industry chains [2][4]. Financial Performance - The refining business revenue decreased by 10% year-on-year to RMB 108.1 billion, with a gross margin decline of 5.4 percentage points to 13.1% due to high oil prices and weak industry demand [2]. - The PTA and polyester segments saw revenue changes of -6% and +22% year-on-year, respectively, with gross margins improving by 4.8 and 3.7 percentage points [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 9.9%, while operating expenses increased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.0% [2]. Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has made progress in launching new production capacities, including 1.6 million tons per year of high-performance resins and new materials, and 400,000 tons of high-performance specialty industrial yarns [4]. - Additional projects in the Nantong base are expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, focusing on functional films and lithium battery separators [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is projected to be RMB 9.43 billion, RMB 11.38 billion, and RMB 12.58 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [5]. - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 1.34, RMB 1.62, and RMB 1.79, respectively [5]. - The target price is based on a 14.5x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's integrated refining advantages [5].