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安踏体育(02020):超预期的零售表现,收购狼爪加速扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Anta reported Q1 2025 retail data showing significant year-on-year growth for its brands, with Anta and FILA both experiencing high single-digit growth, while other brands saw nearly 70% growth, exceeding expectations [2][4]. - The company announced the acquisition of the outdoor brand Wolf Claw for a base price of 290million,whichisconsideredafavorabledealatapproximately1XPS,givenWolfClawsprojectedFY2025revenueof325million[4][6].Thereportindicatesthatdespiteshorttermpressuresonoperatingprofitmarginsduetoincreasedexpensesfromchannelrenovationsandbrandacquisitions,Antaisonahealthygrowthtrajectorywithstablegrowthforitscorebrand,positivetrendsforFILA,andacceleratedgrowthforotherbrands[6].SummarybySectionsRetailPerformanceAntasretailperformanceinQ12025wasbetterthanexpected,withhighsingledigitgrowthforAntaandFILA,andnearly70290 million, which is considered a favorable deal at approximately 1X PS, given Wolf Claw's projected FY2025 revenue of €325 million [4][6]. - The report indicates that despite short-term pressures on operating profit margins due to increased expenses from channel renovations and brand acquisitions, Anta is on a healthy growth trajectory with stable growth for its core brand, positive trends for FILA, and accelerated growth for other brands [6]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's retail performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, with high single-digit growth for Anta and FILA, and nearly 70% growth for other brands [2][4]. - The brand restructuring for FILA since 2023 is showing positive results, and the children's segment is also improving following reforms [6]. Acquisition of Wolf Claw - The acquisition of Wolf Claw for 290 million is expected to enhance Anta's brand portfolio, particularly in the mid-range outdoor segment, and is anticipated to contribute positively to growth in the medium term [6]. - The integration of Wolf Claw may initially have a slight negative impact on profits, but similar past acquisitions have led to successful growth [6]. Financial Projections - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 13.42 billion, CNY 14.96 billion, and CNY 16.59 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 11% for 2026 and 2027 [6][9]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the same period are 16.53, 14.83, and 13.37, indicating that the stock is currently valued at a relatively low level [9].