CSCEC(601668) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-17 08:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26][31] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong leadership advantages and continuous improvement in cash flow despite a slight decline in revenue and increased collection pressure affecting profitability [1][2][3] - New contract signings have shown resilient growth, with a total of 40,808 billion yuan in new contracts for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [2][10] - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with an overall gross margin of 9.86% for 2024, which is a slight increase from the previous year [2][16] - Operating cash flow has been positive for five consecutive years, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 15.77 billion yuan in 2024 [3][19] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 21,871 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 462 billion yuan, down 14.9% [1][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 5,606 billion yuan, a decline of 5.7% year-on-year, with a net profit of 65 billion yuan, down 38.9% [1][9] Order and Sales Performance - The company secured new contracts worth 40,808 billion yuan in 2024, with infrastructure contracts increasing by 21.1% year-on-year [2][10] - In the real estate sector, the company reported a contract sales amount of 4,219 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year, with sales area down 21.2% [2][10] Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 9.86%, with specific margins for housing construction, infrastructure, and real estate at 7.40%, 10.03%, and 17.28% respectively [2][16] - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 4.95%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [2][16] Cash Flow and Investment - The net cash flow from operating activities was 15.77 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive year of positive cash flow [3][19] - The company has improved its investment income ratio, with a net cash outflow from investment activities of 25.1 billion yuan, the smallest since 2006 [3][19] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward but maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating, projecting net profits of 493 billion yuan, 507 billion yuan, and 520 billion yuan for the next three years [26][29]