CHALCO(SH:601600) Huaan Securities·2025-04-17 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 237.066 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, up 85.38% year-on-year [4][15] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 63.288 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, and a net profit of 3.383 billion yuan, up 147.96% year-on-year [15] - For Q1 2025, the company expects a net profit of 6.2 to 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 40% [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from the electrolytic aluminum segment was 136.359 billion yuan in 2024, up 8.82% year-on-year, while the alumina segment generated 74.004 billion yuan, a 38.26% increase year-on-year [5][21] - The total alumina production for 2024 was 16.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while the electrolytic aluminum production reached 7.61 million tons, up 12.08% year-on-year [5][27] - The average price of alumina in 2024 was 4,078.05 yuan per ton, a 39.71% increase year-on-year, while the average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,900 yuan per ton, up 6.58% year-on-year [29][30] Market Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing saturation, with a capacity utilization rate of 97.9% as of March 2025, indicating limited short-term growth potential [38] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum in 2024 is projected to be 44.9003 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [40] - The company is expected to maintain a strong investment value in the aluminum sector due to its complete industrial chain and resource security [8] Profitability Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 14.03 billion, 15.53 billion, and 17.45 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [8][53] - The gross profit margin for the alumina segment is expected to stabilize around 16.9% to 17.2% from 2025 to 2027, while the electrolytic aluminum segment is projected to improve to 14.6% by 2025 [52]