Seazen(601155) Dongxing Securities·2025-04-17 11:09Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential investors [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to reverse its current challenges due to its strong commercial operations and manageable debt risks, with a focus on the "Residential + Commercial" real estate model [1][3]. - The commercial segment is expected to increasingly contribute to profits as the residential development business continues to decline [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates under a "Residential + Commercial" dual-driven model, with commercial gross profit approaching 50% [15]. - It has a significant presence in both residential and commercial real estate, with a focus on cash flow stability [19]. 2. Commercial Operations - The company emphasizes "scale leadership and deep operation," with a leading opening scale in the industry [37]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has opened 200 shopping centers, with a total area of 16.01 million square meters and an average occupancy rate of 97.7% [41][42]. - The total revenue from commercial operations reached 12.808 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [42]. 3. Development and Sales - The company has ceased land acquisitions since 2022, leading to a further contraction in development and sales scale [2][57]. - In 2024, the sales amount was 40.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.1% [58]. - The company has adequately provisioned for inventory impairment, with a provision of 11.56 billion yuan, representing 10.6% of the inventory book balance [69]. 4. Financial Overview - The company has successfully reduced its interest-bearing debt and optimized its debt structure, with a financing cost of 5.92% in 2024, down 28 basis points from 2023 [2][74]. - As of the end of 2024, the total interest-bearing debt was 54.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year [75]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits of 89.9 billion yuan, 124.5 billion yuan, and 141.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3][83]. - The report suggests that the company's stock price could reach a reasonable range of 14.83 to 17.55 yuan by 2025, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.55 to 0.65 [3].