Seazen(601155) Dongxing Securities·2025-04-17 12:33Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for potential investors [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned to reverse its current challenges due to its strong commercial operations and manageable debt risks, with a focus on the "Residential + Commercial" real estate model [1][3]. Company Overview - The company operates under a "Residential + Commercial" dual-driven model, with commercial gross profit accounting for nearly 50% of total revenue [15][19]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has developed a significant portfolio of commercial properties, with 200 shopping centers (Wuyue Plaza) across 136 cities, totaling an opening area of 16.01 million square meters [37][41]. Commercial Operations - The company emphasizes "scale leadership and deep operation," achieving a high average occupancy rate of 97.7% for its shopping centers, with total commercial operating revenue reaching 12.808 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.10% [1][42]. - The total foot traffic for Wuyue Plaza reached 1.766 billion visits in 2024, reflecting a 19% increase year-on-year [1][42]. Development and Sales - The company's development and sales business is expected to continue contracting, with a projected sales amount of 40.2 billion yuan in 2024, down 47.1% year-on-year [57]. - The company has ceased land acquisitions since 2022, leading to a further reduction in development scale, while the contribution from commercial operations to profits is anticipated to increase [2][69]. Financial Overview - The company has successfully reduced its debt costs, with an average financing cost of 5.92% in 2024, down 28 basis points from 2023 [2][74]. - As of the end of 2024, the company’s total interest-bearing debt was 54.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.9% from the previous year, indicating a trend of declining debt levels [74][75]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 89.9 billion, 124.5 billion, and 141.9 billion yuan respectively [3][83]. - The report suggests that the company's stock price could reasonably range between 14.83 and 17.55 yuan in 2025, based on absolute and relative valuation metrics [3].