Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Xiaomi Corp. with a 12-month target price of HK41.25 [1][17][49]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's EV factory Phase II is ready for production, with trial production expected to commence soon, indicating strong execution in EV manufacturing capacity [1]. - The company has shown robust sales momentum in China, particularly in smartphones, with a 40% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025, leading to a market share increase to 18.6% [2][50]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Xiaomi's revenue from China is expected to offset some overseas revenue challenges, particularly from US tariff impacts [16][50]. Summary by Sections EV Manufacturing - Phase II of the Xiaomi EV factory in Beijing has received approval and is expected to start trial production soon, aligning with management's timeline for the YU7 launch in June-July 2025 [1][19]. - The SU7 order volume has normalized post the SU7 Ultra release, and the additional capacity from Phase II is anticipated to meet rising consumer demand [1][29]. Smartphone Performance - Global smartphone shipments grew by 1% year-over-year in Q1 2025, with Xiaomi maintaining a stable market share of 14% and achieving 41.8 million shipments [2][40]. - In China, Xiaomi's smartphone shipments surged by 40% year-over-year, significantly outperforming the industry average of 3% growth [2][41]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Xiaomi have been adjusted, with expected revenues of RMB 365.9 billion for 2024 and projected growth to RMB 714.8 billion by 2027 [4][14]. - The report anticipates a 17% year-over-year growth in smartphone revenue for Q1 2025, driven by higher average selling prices [2][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Xiaomi is positioned as the world's third-largest smartphone brand and is expanding its ecosystem through a "Human x Car x Home" strategy, which is expected to drive significant revenue and EPS growth in the coming years [50]. - The company is leveraging its strong balance sheet and operational capabilities to enhance competitiveness in the EV market [50].
高盛：小米集团-电动汽车工厂二期已准备好投产，小米的生产进度按计划推进；中国市YU7场强劲的销售势头将部分抵消海外市场的不确定性；给予 “买入” 评级。