小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 2026 年 04 月 01 日 | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 31.76 港元 | | 分析师 | 崔琰 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525110023 | | | 邮箱： | cuiyan@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 方竞 | | 执业证书： S0590525120003 | | | 邮箱： | fangjing@glms.com.cn | | 研究助理 | 蔡濠宇 | | 执业证书： S0590125110078 | | | 邮箱： | caihaoyu@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -40% -17% 7% 30% 2025/4 2025/9 2026/3 小米集团-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_For ...

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2025 年业绩公告点评 25 年业绩创新高，汽车业务放量开启多元增长新阶段 glmszqdatemark 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，行业竞争加剧风险，存储涨价风险。 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 457,287 | 502,996 | 582,229 | 667,783 | | 增长率（%） | 25.0 | 10.0 | 15.8 | 14.7 | | 归母净利润 | 41,643 | 33,265 | 43,633 | 54,324 | | 增长率（%） | 76.0 | -20.1 | 31.2 | 24.5 | | EPS | 1.61 | 1.28 | 1.68 | 2.09 | | P/E | 17 | 22 | 17 | 13 | | P/B | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 3 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 reached 457.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while adjusted net profit was approximately 39.2 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to deliver 550,000 cars in 2026, with a significant increase in automotive deliveries expected [2] - Xiaomi's AI capabilities are gaining traction, with the launch of new AI models and products that are expected to enhance its ecosystem [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are 509.6 billion yuan in 2026, 576.0 billion yuan in 2027, and 623.4 billion yuan in 2028, with adjusted net profits estimated at 34.5 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [4][11] - The company is expected to experience a decline in smartphone gross margin to around 8% in 2026 due to rising storage costs [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 6.8% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's revenue for 2025 reached 457.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%, while adjusted net profit was approximately 39.2 billion yuan, up 43.8% year-on-year [1] - The company aims to deliver 550,000 cars in 2026, with a significant increase in automotive deliveries expected [2] - Xiaomi's AI capabilities are gaining traction, with new models and applications expected to enhance its ecosystem [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: 509.6 billion yuan in 2026, 576.0 billion yuan in 2027, and 623.4 billion yuan in 2028, with adjusted net profits of approximately 34.5 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [4][11] - The company is expected to face a decline in smartphone gross margin to around 8% in 2026 due to rising storage costs [1] - The adjusted net profit margin is projected to be 6.8% in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% [11]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare platform that has scaled in three major sectors: global smartphones, consumer AIoT, and smart electric vehicles. As of Q4 2025, Xiaomi ranks among the top three in global smartphone shipments for 22 consecutive quarters, with a projected market share of 13.3% by 2025. The AIoT platform is expected to connect 1.08 billion devices by the end of 2025, establishing a leading position in the consumer IoT market. The automotive segment is projected to deliver 411,000 vehicles in 2025, with strong early demand for the new Xiaomi SU7 model [6][10][12]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections (in million CNY) for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2024: 365,906.35 - 2025: 457,286.69 - 2026E: 539,450.02 - 2027E: 656,374.58 - 2028E: 801,697.62 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 35.04% for 2024, 24.97% for 2025, and 17.97% for 2026 [5][18]. - Net profit projections (in million CNY) are: - 2024: 23,658.13 - 2025: 41,643.39 - 2026E: 33,830.95 - 2027E: 43,178.52 - 2028E: 54,244.52 - The report anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 76.02% [5][18]. Business Segments and Valuation - The report estimates that by 2026, the mobile and AIoT business will generate revenue of 375 billion CNY, with a net profit of 31.9 billion CNY. The automotive and AI innovation business is expected to generate 164.4 billion CNY in revenue, with a net profit of 3.3 billion CNY. The valuation method applied is a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning a PE of 20x for the mobile and AIoT business and a PS of 1.5x for the automotive segment [16][18]. - The target total market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at approximately 10,018 billion HKD, representing an upside potential of 19% from the current market value [6][16]. Key Assumptions - Revenue growth is driven by strong performance in the automotive sector, with expected growth rates of 55%, 50%, and 40% for the automotive business from 2026 to 2028. The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for the company, marking a transition to a more profitable phase as the automotive scale effects become evident [6][12]. Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new automotive models, expansion in overseas markets, and advancements in AI technology. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring order conversion rates for the new SU7 model and the company's progress in international markets [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare platform that has scaled in three major sectors: global smartphones, consumer AIoT, and smart electric vehicles. As of Q4 2025, Xiaomi ranks among the top three in global smartphone shipments for 22 consecutive quarters, with a projected market share of 13.3% in 2025. The AIoT platform is expected to connect 1.08 billion devices by the end of 2025, establishing a leading position in the consumer IoT market. The automotive segment is projected to deliver 411,000 vehicles in 2025, with strong early demand for the new Xiaomi SU7 model [6][5][12]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections (in million CNY) for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2024: 365,906.35 - 2025: 457,286.69 - 2026E: 539,450.02 - 2027E: 656,374.58 - 2028E: 801,697.62 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to be 35.04% for 2024, 24.97% for 2025, and gradually declining to 22.14% by 2028 [5][18]. - Net profit forecasts (in million CNY) are: - 2024: 23,658.13 - 2025: 41,643.39 - 2026E: 33,830.95 - 2027E: 43,178.52 - 2028E: 54,244.52 - The report anticipates a significant increase in automotive and AI-related revenues, with a projected growth rate of 55% in 2026 [5][6]. Business Segments and Valuation - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a PE of 20x for the smartphone and AIoT business and a PS of 1.5x for the automotive and AI segments. The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at approximately 10,018 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 19% [6][16]. - The automotive and AI innovation business is expected to generate significant revenue growth, with projections of 164.4 billion CNY in 2026, contributing to the overall revenue growth strategy [12][16]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi is recognized for its strong market positioning in the smartphone and AIoT sectors, with a focus on high-end product offerings and international expansion. The report highlights that concerns regarding storage price increases and competition in the automotive sector may be overstated, as the company's diversification strategy provides a robust buffer against potential profit pressures [6][12].

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月31日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | ...

翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) FF305 呈交日期： 2026年3月30日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | ...

Summary of Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Industry**: Robotics and Consumer Electronics Key Innovations and Developments - **Dexterous Hand Technology**: Xiaomi introduced updates on its humanoid robot CyberOne's dexterous hand, featuring: - A full-palm tactile data-collection glove for efficient dataset building - A bionic sweat-gland cooling system to address actuator overheating - Proven reliability with over 150,000 grasp cycles validated in its EV factory [1][7] - **AI Architecture**: Utilizes proprietary AI models (Xiaomi-Robotics-0 & TacRefineNet) to enhance operational capabilities, enabling tasks like screw driving and ball handling [1] Future Goals - **Bionic Hand Development**: Xiaomi aims to create bionic hands for stable manufacturing operations, targeting a task success rate close to 100% over the next five years [2] - **Large-Scale Deployment**: Plans to deploy humanoid robots in factories on a large scale within the same timeframe [2] Industry Challenges Addressed - **Bottlenecks in Dexterous Hands Sector**: Xiaomi's updates address critical issues such as: - Data scarcity for AI training - Short lifespan of components, particularly tendons - Thermal management challenges from dense actuators [3] Competitive Positioning - **Market Position**: Xiaomi is positioned as a tier-1 player in the robotics industry, with a closed-loop technology system integrating perception, decision-making, and execution [8] - **Comparison with Competitors**: Xiaomi's technology path is likened to Tesla's Optimus, focusing on in-house manufacturing applications and cost control, benefiting from integration with China's supply chain [8] Financial Outlook - **Investment Thesis**: Xiaomi is viewed as being in the early stages of a multi-year ecosystem expansion, leveraging its "Human x Car x Home" strategy. The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the EV sector due to its robust balance sheet and cost advantages [11] - **Price Target**: A 12-month target price of HK$41 is set, indicating a potential upside of 24.2% from the current price of HK$33 [12] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: - Increased competition and potential market share losses in the smartphone industry - Pressure on gross profit margins in both smartphone and EV sectors - Execution risks related to brand premiumization and EV business performance - Geopolitical risks and regulatory uncertainties [12][14] Additional Insights - **AI Investments**: Xiaomi plans to invest Rmb60 billion in foundational AI technologies from 2026 to 2028, which may impact near-term profits but is expected to position the company as a leader in physical AI [10] - **Developer Engagement**: The extension of free token offerings for MiMo-V2-Pro is aimed at attracting developers and enhancing model stability before open-sourcing [9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Xiaomi Corp.'s advancements in robotics, future goals, competitive positioning, financial outlook, and associated risks.

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | ...