| Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 270,970 | 365,906 | 454,346 | 499,291 | 549,221 | | 同比（%） | (3.24) | 35.04 | 24.17 | 9.89 | 10.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 17,475 | 23,658 | 42,705 | 34,688 | 37,434 | | 同比（%） | 606.34 | 35.38 | 80.51 | (18.77) | 7.92 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 19,273 | 27,235 | 39,402 | 30,131 | 36,297 | | 同比（%） | 226.26 | 41.31 | 44.68 | (23.53) | 20.46 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.67 | 0.90 | 1.63 | 1.33 | 1.43 | | P/E（现价&最 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report anticipates short-term performance pressure but remains optimistic about the smart terminal ecosystem benefiting from advancements in AI [1] - The company is expected to continue gaining market share in the high-end smartphone segment and its automotive business is projected to achieve profitability [1] - Adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been made due to rising storage costs, with expected net profits of 42.7 billion, 34.7 billion, and 37.4 billion respectively [1] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 270.97 billion in 2023 to 549.22 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly in 2024, followed by a decline in 2026, before recovering in 2027 [1] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.67 in 2023 to 1.43 in 2027 [1] Business Segments - **Smartphones**: The company is expected to see a decline in smartphone revenue in Q4 2025 due to rising storage prices, but long-term prospects remain strong due to a shift towards high-end models [1] - **IoT and Consumer Products**: Revenue for this segment is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year, with stable gross margins expected [1] - **Internet Services**: Anticipated revenue growth of 10% for the year, maintaining high gross margins [1] - **Smart Automotive and Innovation**: The automotive segment is expected to see over 200% revenue growth year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23% [1] AI and Innovation - The company has launched a new AI model, Xiaomi MiMo-V2-Flash, which is expected to enhance user experience across its ecosystem [1] - The report highlights the potential for AI technology to empower user experiences within the company's integrated ecosystem of products [1]

呈交日期： 2026年3月13日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB | 說明 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | 事件 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | | 股份類別 B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | 事件 | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 | 庫存股份數目 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | | | | 目 | 份）數目百分比 (註3) | | | | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2026年3月11日 | | 21,634,420,672 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.1% from the current price of HKD 33.62 [1][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that rising supply chain costs, particularly in the smartphone segment, may pressure future performance, leading to a downgrade in the investment rating to Neutral [2][7]. - It anticipates a decline in global smartphone shipments by 11% in 2026, with Xiaomi's smartphone revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted downwards to RMB 182.2 billion and RMB 166.7 billion, respectively [7][19]. - The report also notes that Xiaomi's automotive business may face increased competition, shifting focus from supply capacity to demand orders in 2026, with projected sales of 559,000 vehicles [7][19]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, RMB 365.91 billion in 2024, RMB 452.33 billion in 2025, RMB 492.47 billion in 2026, and RMB 548.83 billion in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -3.2%, 35.0%, 23.6%, 8.9%, and 11.4% respectively [3][19]. - Net profit estimates are projected at RMB 17.48 billion for 2023, RMB 23.66 billion for 2024, RMB 39.99 billion for 2025, RMB 33.73 billion for 2026, and RMB 41.29 billion for 2027, with significant growth in 2024 and 2025 [3][19]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in the earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 1.49 and RMB 1.53, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 10.5% and 11.8% from previous estimates [7][19]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation approach, applying a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.0x for the smartphone and AIoT segments and 1.4x for the automotive and AI segments, resulting in a target price of HKD 37 [7][15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) with a target price of HKD 37.00, indicating a potential upside of 10.1% from the current price of HKD 33.62 [1][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that rising supply chain costs, particularly in the smartphone segment, may pressure future performance, leading to a downgrade in the investment rating to Neutral [2]. - The forecast for Xiaomi's smartphone revenue for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced to RMB 182.2 billion and RMB 166.7 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 193.5 billion and RMB 197.7 billion [7]. - The report anticipates a decline in global smartphone shipments by 11% in 2026, projecting a total of 1.13 billion units [7]. - The automotive business is expected to face increased competition, with projected sales of 559,000 vehicles in 2026 [7]. - The AIoT segment is expected to see revenue growth driven by national subsidies and overseas expansion, with projected revenues of RMB 120.2 billion and RMB 133.6 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, RMB 365.91 billion in 2024, RMB 452.33 billion in 2025, RMB 492.47 billion in 2026, and RMB 548.83 billion in 2027, with growth rates of -3.2%, 35.0%, 23.6%, 8.9%, and 11.4% respectively [3][19]. - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 17.48 billion in 2023, RMB 23.66 billion in 2024, RMB 39.99 billion in 2025, RMB 33.73 billion in 2026, and RMB 41.29 billion in 2027, with significant growth in the earlier years followed by a decline in 2026 [3][19]. - The adjusted EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected to be RMB 1.49 and RMB 1.53, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 1.66 and RMB 1.74 [7][14]. Valuation Metrics - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a target price of HKD 37 based on a P/E ratio of 22.0x for the smartphone and AIoT segments and a P/S ratio of 1.4x for the automotive and AI segments [7][15]. - The overall P/E ratio for 2026 is adjusted to 21.7x, reflecting the revised revenue and profit forecasts [7][15].

Market Overview - US stock indices showed mixed performance at the opening, with the Dow Jones down 0.16%, Nasdaq up 0.3%, and S&P 500 up 0.13% [1] - By the time of reporting, the Dow Jones had decreased by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.16%, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.1% [1] - A total of 1789 stocks advanced, while 3195 stocks declined [1] Notable Stock Movements - Tesla shares increased by 2.42%, closing at $408.89 [2] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rose by 1.73%, closing at $206.75 [2] - Intel shares gained 1.67%, closing at $47.56 [2] - Oracle Corporation's stock surged over 14% after reporting strong quarterly results and raising its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.79 against an expectation of $1.70, and revenue of $17.19 billion, a 22% year-over-year increase [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 0.25%, with most popular Chinese stocks declining [7] - Li Auto shares rose by 4.56%, closing at $18.57 [8] Commodity Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a pullback, with spot gold dropping to $5173.67 per ounce, down 0.32% [10] - Spot silver fell by 3.46%, trading at $85.28 per ounce [10] Inflation and Oil Prices - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February rose by 2.4% year-over-year, with core CPI increasing by 2.5% [13] - WTI crude oil prices saw significant volatility, initially rising over 6% before narrowing to a 2.58% increase [13] - The G7 energy ministers expressed support for measures to address the current energy situation, including the potential use of strategic energy reserves [16]

表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 小米集团 (於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限公司) 呈交日期： 2026年3月11日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 01810 | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | | 81810 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事 ...

FF305 呈交日期： 2026年3月10日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 01810 | | 說明 | | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 81810 | | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件 | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | | 已 ...

Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corp. (1810.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$866.1 billion / $110.7 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$677.0 billion / $86.4 billion - **Current Price**: HK$33.42 - **Target Price**: HK$41.00 - **Upside Potential**: 22.7% [1] Key Industry Insights - **Headwinds**: Rising upstream costs in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, alongside softening demand due to the taper-off of national subsidies and NEV incentives, are major challenges impacting Xiaomi's profitability and valuation [1] - **Revenue Adjustments**: Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 2% to 9%, with adjusted net profit estimates cut by 8% to 24% for the same period [1] Financial Performance - **2026E Revenue**: Estimated at Rmb496.2 billion, down from previous estimates [6] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: Expected to be Rmb27.9 billion in 2026E, reflecting a significant decline from Rmb39.5 billion in 2025E [6] - **EBITDA**: Projected at Rmb40.3 billion for 2026E [6] - **EPS**: Expected to be Rmb1.13 in 2026E, down from Rmb1.47 in 2025E [6] Strategic Insights - **Backbone Profit**: Internet services, AIoT, and other income are expected to provide a buffer against industry challenges, with an estimated "backbone profit" of Rmb33.5 billion in 2026E [19] - **R&D Investments**: Increased R&D spending (Rmb40 billion in 2026E) is anticipated to drag near-term profits but is aimed at establishing Xiaomi as a leader in physical AI [20] - **Smartphone Segment**: Expected to face a decline in shipments, with a projected drop of 10% to 15% year-over-year in 4Q25E and 1Q26E [25][28] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Share**: Xiaomi is experiencing a decline in market share, while competitors like Apple and OPPO are gaining [30] - **Pricing Strategy**: Xiaomi's pricing for new models varies by region, with some markets seeing price increases while others remain stable [41] Future Catalysts - **Upcoming Events**: Key events include the release of 4Q25 results, new EV models, and updates on AI initiatives [22] - **Product Launches**: The launch of new smartphone models and EVs is expected to drive revenue growth in the coming years [22] Conclusion - Despite facing significant challenges, Xiaomi's strategic investments in AI and R&D, along with a strong balance sheet, provide a favorable risk-reward scenario for investors. The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$41, reflecting a potential upside of 22.7% [1][2]