检修增多但织造负荷下滑，PTA冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On Thursday morning, Hengli Petrochemical announced maintenance plans for two sets of equipment, and crude oil rebounded, causing the PTA price to surge. However, in the afternoon, the downstream terminal's operating rate continued to decline, and confidence was lacking, leading to a subsequent decline in PTA. The comprehensive operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 61%, a 2% decrease from last week, and the comprehensive operating rate of texturing machines in the sample area of Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 73%, a 5% decrease from last week. The terminal continued to reduce the operating rate to control the raw material consumption speed and the rising speed of grey fabric inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Cost Side - In the short term, the impacts of Trump's tariff policy and OPEC+ production cuts have not subsided. In the medium term, the fundamentals of crude oil remain weak. Trump may lower oil prices to curb inflation, and the market may further trade on recession expectations, resulting in a weakening of oil prices in the medium term [2]. - Regarding gasoline and aromatics, the octane spread has rebounded slightly recently, but the medium - and long - term fundamentals of gasoline are still weak. The US has started stocking up on aromatics, but the overall impact is limited. Since March, South Korea's aromatics exports to the US have decreased significantly month - on - month, and the overall support from the cost side is limited [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $170/ton (a $2/ton increase from the previous period) the day before last. Recently, PX maintenance has been gradually implemented. The current PXN valuation is not high, and there is still support at the bottom, but the rebound is limited under the weak gasoline market. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil and the macro - environment [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was 24 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 213 yuan/ton (a 69 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk was 354 yuan/ton (a 2 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). The PTA supply - demand continued to destock, and the basis rebounded. However, with the outflow of warehouse receipts, the liquidity in the spot market was acceptable, and the PTA price mainly fluctuated following the cost side [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 93.3% (a 0.1% increase from the previous period). Recently, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have been continuously decreasing. Due to the high inventory of weaving grey fabrics and poor order intake, the willingness to replenish inventory is weak, and the filament inventory has accumulated to a high level. After the relaxation of tariffs in other countries, orders from Southeast Asia have resumed shipping, but direct orders to the US are still greatly affected, and the increase in Southeast Asian export - grabbing orders is limited. Recently, bottle - chip factories have restarted in a concentrated manner, the filament load has remained firm, and the short - fiber load has decreased. The polyester operating rate will remain high in the short term and may decline in May [3]. - For PF, the short - fiber spot basis was 330 yuan/ton (a 20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PF spot production profit was 334 yuan/ton (a 33 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the PF main contract was 897 yuan/ton (a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Short - fiber factories have gradually implemented production cuts, but the demand side remains weak. The tariff issue has been postponed, and the market sentiment has gradually stabilized, but the willingness to chase high prices continuously is insufficient. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a significant increase in demand - side export - grabbing orders [3]. - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 587 yuan/ton (a 151.10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous period). Since the policy has little impact on the bottle - chip's own demand, the bottle - chip is slightly stronger than the raw material. At the historical low price, downstream customers have increased their replenishment. With Trump's implementation of a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the market sentiment has improved. However, the current bottle - chip load has returned to a high level, and the upside space of the polyester bottle - chip factory's processing range is limited. The market price is expected to still fluctuate following the raw material cost [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Be cautious about short - selling and hedging PX/PTA/PF/PR at high prices [4]. - Cross - variety: None [4]. - Cross - period: None [4].