天山铝业（002532）：2024年利润创历史新高，30%高分红承诺凸显长期投资价值

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a record profit in 2024, with a commitment to a high dividend payout of 30% over the next three years, highlighting its long-term investment value [3] - The company reported a revenue of 28.089 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.455 billion yuan, an increase of 102% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an electrolytic aluminum production of 1.1759 million tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 1%, and alumina production of 2.2789 million tons, an increase of 7.55% [2] - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 19,800 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while the average selling price of self-produced alumina was about 4,000 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 40% [2] - The company’s production costs for electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased by 4% and 2% year-on-year, respectively, but the increase in selling prices significantly outpaced the cost increases, leading to substantial profit growth [2] Dividend Policy - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 1.845 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 41.42% and a dividend yield of 5.55% [3] - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% of the annual net profit [3] Future Outlook - The company aims for a production target of 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum and 2.4 million tons of alumina in 2025, with a focus on enhancing resource security through overseas acquisitions and domestic mining [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be 4.8 billion, 5.5 billion, and 6.0 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 6.9, 6.0, and 5.5 times [3]