鸿路钢构（002541）：业绩短暂承压，吨毛利环比提升经营拐点或已出现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a revenue of 21.5 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year, with net profits of 772 million and 481 million for attributable and non-recurring profits, respectively, reflecting declines of 34.51% and 44.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 247 million in 2024, representing a payout ratio of 32% and a dividend yield of 1.81% [1] - The company anticipates a recovery in industry demand driven by fiscal stimulus, with a significant increase in new orders in Q1 2025, amounting to 70.52 billion, a year-on-year growth of 1.25% [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company produced 4.51 million tons, a slight increase of 0.51% year-on-year, with sales of 4.33 million tons, up by 1.82% [2] - The estimated non-recurring net profit per ton for the year is 111 yuan, down by 94.25 yuan year-on-year, with a fourth-quarter net profit per ton of 104 yuan, a decrease of 41.5 yuan year-on-year [2] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 10.33%, a decline of 0.80 percentage points year-on-year, while the fourth-quarter gross margin is 10.76%, down by 0.12 percentage points year-on-year [2] Segment Performance - Revenue from various product categories showed declines, with H-beams, box-type columns, and pipes experiencing decreases of 10.4%, 6.16%, and 6.81%, respectively, while the gross margins for these products also fell [3] - The company is investing in smart technology to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to improve gross margins in the long term [3] Cost and Cash Flow Analysis - The company’s total expense ratio for 2024 is 7.18%, an increase of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, with specific increases in research and development expenses [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is 573 million, a decrease of 524 million year-on-year, indicating a need for improved cash management [4] Financial Projections - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 25.06 billion, 29.33 billion, and 33.63 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 901.95 million, 1.06 billion, and 1.27 billion [5] - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to be 15.19, 12.89, and 10.83 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]