Yangzhou Chenhua(300610) HTSC·2025-04-18 07:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 900 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 80 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39% [1] - The company is expected to see long-term growth driven by the recovery of downstream demand and the gradual contribution of ongoing projects [1][3] - The price difference for polyether amine D230 is under pressure, leading the company to adjust its production structure to mitigate losses and enhance profits [2] - The company has several projects under construction that are anticipated to contribute to incremental performance in the future [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 200 million RMB, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 200 million RMB, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 27 million RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23% [1] Product Performance - The sales volume for surface active agents, flame retardants, and silicone rubber in 2024 was 68,000 tons, 15,000 tons, and 4,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of +5%, +13%, and -12% [2] - The price of polyether amine D230 is expected to decrease by 29% year-on-year to 13,600 RMB per ton in 2024 [2] Profitability Forecast - The report maintains the net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 108 million RMB and 120 million RMB respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of 130 million RMB [4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.50 RMB, 0.56 RMB, and 0.60 RMB respectively [4] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 10.50 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21x for 2025 [4][8]