GDPD(SH:600795) Great Wall Securities·2025-04-18 09:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's conventional power sources show stable profitability, with ongoing project reserves providing growth potential. The financial performance for 2024 indicates a slight revenue decline of 1% year-on-year, but a significant net profit increase of 75.3% year-on-year, driven by substantial investment gains [1][9]. - The company is well-positioned with a rich pipeline of projects across various power sources, ensuring continued performance growth. The total installed capacity is 111.7 million kW, with conventional power (coal and gas) accounting for 66.8% [4][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profitability: The company expects revenues of CNY 179.18 billion in 2024, with a projected net profit of CNY 9.83 billion. The EPS is forecasted to be CNY 0.55, reflecting a 75.5% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - Growth Rates: Revenue is projected to grow at rates of 5.1%, 3.8%, and 2.3% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, while net profit is expected to decline by 23.9% in 2025 before recovering with growth rates of 16.4% and 15.2% in the following years [1][9]. - Key Financial Ratios: The report highlights a return on equity (ROE) of 12.7% for 2024, with a projected P/E ratio of 8.5 for the same year, indicating a favorable valuation [1][9]. Operational Data - Power Generation: In 2024, the company’s coal, gas, and hydropower generation is expected to be 366.17 billion kWh, 2.35 billion kWh, and 59.468 billion kWh respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.3%, +22.49%, and +7.93% [2][3]. - Investment Gains: The company reported investment income of CNY 7.33 billion in 2024, a remarkable increase of 363% year-on-year, primarily from the sale of a 50% stake in a subsidiary [1][9]. Project Pipeline - The company has a robust project pipeline with ongoing and approved projects, including 7.64 million kW of coal and 4.9235 million kW of hydropower under construction, which will contribute to future earnings growth [4][9].