Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-18 11:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the US-China tariff war, concerns about a global economic slowdown have grown, causing crude oil prices to weaken and stay low, and macroeconomic expectations to deteriorate. In the short term, pessimistic macro expectations may accelerate the implementation of polyester production cuts, and the main point of contention will be whether ethane-based ethylene glycol can reduce supply [3]. - The US tariff hikes have further impacted the export demand for terminal textiles and clothing, with an expected acceleration of the negative feedback effect. The high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories makes it difficult to achieve effective inventory reduction in April [4]. - The profit of ethane-based ethylene glycol is expected to be significantly in the red due to domestic counter-tariffs, and there is a possibility of plant shutdowns. The maintenance plans for coal-based ethylene glycol have been implemented, along with some unexpected maintenance, leading to a significant reduction in supply [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - Price Ranges: Ethylene glycol is forecasted to be in the range of 3800 - 4400, PX at 5500 - 6200, PTA at 3900 - 4500, and bottle chips at 5100 - 5700. - Volatility: The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ethylene glycol is 30.73% (91.3% historical percentile over 3 years), PX is 44.15% (99.4%), PTA is 39.28% (93.6%), and bottle chips is 31.25% (98.6%) [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: For high finished - product inventory and fear of ethylene glycol price drops, short ethylene glycol futures (25% EG2506 and 50% EG2506P4100) or buy put options and sell call options (50% EG2506P4100 and 50% EG2506C4300). - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy ethylene glycol futures (50% EG2506) or sell put options (75% EG2506P4100) [2]. Price and Spread Data - Prices: On April 18, 2025, Brent crude was not available, while other products like naphtha CFR Japan, PX contracts, TA contracts, etc., had specific price values and changes compared to previous days and weeks. - Spreads: TA, EG, PF, and PX had various basis and month - to - month spreads with corresponding changes [5][7]. - Processing Fees: Different products such as gasoline reforming, aromatics reforming, etc., had specific processing fees and their daily and weekly changes [7].