BABA(HK:09988) Orient Securities·2025-04-18 13:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Insights - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The estimated market value of the company is 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a robust performance in the core operating data, with a total revenue of 221874 million yuan in Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.57% [11]. AI and Cloud Strategy - The AI cloud demand is rapidly increasing, with a tenfold growth in model calls every six months. The number of active customers has surged from 100 to over 40,000, solidifying Alibaba Cloud's position as the leading player in the domestic cloud computing market [7]. - The company is enhancing its multi-modal large model capabilities, with recent releases achieving industry-leading performance in video generation and cross-modal perception [7]. Business Segments Valuation - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, estimating the market value of various business units, including Taobao Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Cainiao Group, with respective valuation methods such as P/E and P/S [21]. - The Taobao Group is valued at 15686 million yuan based on a P/E ratio of 10x, while the Cloud Intelligence Group is valued at 8500 million yuan using a P/S ratio of 6x [21]. Market Performance - The stock price as of April 17, 2025, is 108.7 HKD, with a 52-week high of 145.9 HKD and a low of 64.41 HKD [3]. - The report notes a strong absolute performance of 63.31% over the past 12 months, indicating positive market sentiment [4].