江苏银行（600919）：2024年年报点评：零售不良改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangsu Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.8% year-on-year in 2024, with revenue growth of 8.8%, indicating an improvement in performance compared to previous quarters [2][5] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.89% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 350%, slightly down from the previous quarter [4][5] - The bank's net interest margin decreased by 4 basis points to 1.67% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset yield [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jiangsu Bank's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY 31,843 million, reflecting a 10.8% increase year-on-year, while revenue reached CNY 80,815 million, up 8.8% [2][12] - The growth in performance was driven by a rebound in net interest income and non-interest income, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6.3% and 3.3% [2] Interest Margin Analysis - The net interest margin for Q4 2024 was 1.67%, down 4 basis points from the previous quarter, influenced by a decrease in asset yield [3] - The asset yield fell by 13 basis points to 3.82%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 6 basis points to 2.12% [3] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio at the end of Q4 2024 was 0.89%, unchanged from the previous quarter, with a focus on the stability of the bank's asset quality [4] - The bank's NPL generation rate was stable at 1.71%, with personal loan NPLs decreasing to 0.88% [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Forecasts for Jiangsu Bank's net profit from 2025 to 2027 are projected to grow at rates of 8.43%, 8.07%, and 8.31%, respectively [5][12] - The target price is set at CNY 14.05 per share, indicating a potential upside of 42% based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.98 for 2025 [5]