SIRIO(300791) 东吴证券·2025-04-19 13:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, with a stable start in the new retail business and anticipation for growth [7] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.92 billion, 4.97 billion, and 5.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.56%, 26.73%, and 17.90% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 3,582 million yuan, projected to grow to 4,211 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 281.04 million yuan, expected to rise to 325.06 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.66% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 was 1.18 yuan, projected to increase to 1.37 yuan in 2024 [1] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 20.75 in 2023 to 17.94 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the new retail business is expected to stabilize, with domestic market challenges anticipated in 2024, but a recovery is expected in early 2025 [7] - The overseas market's revenue share increased by 12 percentage points to 61%, surpassing domestic revenue [7] - The product structure shows a significant increase in revenue from gummies, which grew by 34.54% year-on-year, while other traditional forms like tablets and powders saw declines [7] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 31.46%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to digital transformation and cost optimization [7] - Sales expenses are expected to rise due to team upgrades and marketing efforts, while the overall net profit margin remains stable at 6.7% [7]