JD(HK:09618) Orient Securities·2025-04-19 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.11 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 205.93 HKD, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][4][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.62 yuan in 2023, increasing to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2025 and remain stable thereafter [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% growth [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].