天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明显

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant profit growth, with a 102.03% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, driven by rising alumina prices and production increases [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its full industry chain layout, which mitigates the impact of fluctuating alumina prices [6] - New projects in Guinea and Guangxi are set to enhance the company's resource base and production capacity, contributing to future profit growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 280.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.06% year-on-year, while net profit reached 44.55 billion yuan [6] - The company's projected profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 60 billion yuan, 64 billion yuan, and 62 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6] - The gross profit margin is expected to rise significantly, with estimates of 28.6% in 2025 and 26.0% in 2026 [7] Production and Market Trends - The company produced 1.1759 million tons of electrolytic aluminum in 2024, a 1% increase year-on-year, and 2.2789 million tons of alumina, a 7.55% increase [6] - Alumina prices have shown a gradual increase in 2024, with average prices rising from 3,365 yuan/ton in Q1 to 5,312 yuan/ton in Q2 [6] - Despite a recent decline in alumina prices, the company is expected to maintain profitability due to improved margins in other segments of the industry [6]