BUD APAC(HK:01876) Haitong Securities International·2025-04-20 11:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a NEUTRAL rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC with a target price of HK$7.90, down from HK$10.1 [2][12]. Core Insights - The Chinese market is under pressure, with a projected annual sales volume decline of 11.8% in 2024 and a market share contraction of 149 basis points [3][9]. - The company aims to reverse the downward trend in market share through inventory management optimization, channel expansion, and product innovation, although challenges remain [3][9]. - The South Korean market shows strong growth with a 3.6% increase in sales volume and an 8.7% increase in average selling price (ASP) in 2024, alongside a market share expansion of 349 basis points [4][10]. - In India, the high-end product portfolio is expected to see nearly 20% net income growth, with Budweiser's market share doubling over the past five years [4][10]. - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment period due to leadership changes and external trade challenges, focusing on channel transformation and management efficiency [5][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at US$6.246 billion, with a net profit of US$750 million, reflecting a decline in both revenue and profit compared to previous years [2][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are forecasted at $0.05, $0.05, and $0.06 respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x for 2025 [6][12]. - The company has implemented hedging operations for annual costs to manage risks associated with supply chain stability and currency fluctuations [5][11].