HDPI(SH:600027) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-20 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a total power generation of 51.384 billion kWh in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 8.51%. The average on-grid electricity price was about RMB 0.506 per kWh, a slight decrease of RMB 0.004 per kWh year-on-year. The stability in electricity prices is attributed to an increase in the proportion of high-priced gas power generation and a decline in total electricity generation, which slightly improved the fixed capacity fee per kWh [2][6]. - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal decreased by RMB 180.52 per ton year-on-year, leading to significant cost optimization for the company, resulting in a positive outlook for Q1 performance [2][6]. - The company is experiencing a decline in coal-fired power generation due to a relaxed power supply-demand situation and increased renewable energy capacity, particularly in Shandong province, where coal-fired generation decreased by 16.81% year-on-year. However, gas-fired generation increased by 9.89% and hydropower generation grew by 8.41% year-on-year [6][10]. - The company is set to expand its scale with the injection of high-quality gas power assets amounting to 15.9728 million kW, which accounts for 27.16% of its current installed capacity. Future injections of quality hydropower and coal-fired assets from the parent group are expected, indicating significant long-term growth potential [10]. - The earnings forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 being RMB 0.58, RMB 0.60, and RMB 0.69, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 9.84x, 9.49x, and 8.17x [10].