SBGCL(SH:600827) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-21 02:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][17] Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in net profit due to the issuance of REITs, with a projected net profit of 1.567 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 292.93% [1][7] - The company is undergoing a transformation in its core business, focusing on trends such as two-dimensional culture shopping malls and outlet stores, which may pressure short-term performance but support long-term growth [1][7] - The retail environment remains challenging, particularly for the department store segment, which has seen a revenue decline of 31.93% year-on-year [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company is expected to generate revenue of 27.675 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year, while the net profit is projected to be 1.567 billion yuan [1][5] - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 25.88%, with a net margin of 5.00%, reflecting a significant increase in net margin due to REIT-related gains [3][11] - The company’s various business segments show mixed performance, with department stores declining significantly, while shopping centers and outlet stores show resilience [2][8][10] Segment Performance Summary - Department Stores: Revenue of 1.483 billion yuan in 2024, down 31.93%, with a gross margin of 31.42% [2][8] - Shopping Centers: Revenue of 2.234 billion yuan, up 17.60%, but with a declining gross margin of 45.18% [2][8] - Outlets: Revenue of 1.517 billion yuan, stable growth of 0.03%, with a gross margin of 78.06% [2][8] - Supermarkets: The supermarket segment, particularly the Lianhua Supermarket, reported a net loss of 333 million yuan, with overall revenue declining across various formats [2][8][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue leveraging its geographical and property advantages to enhance operational performance, with ongoing adjustments in business strategy [4][17] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are revised to 548 million, 620 million, and 679 million yuan respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook due to pressures in the supermarket segment [4][19]