百亚股份：线下兑现高增长，继续看好成长空间-20250421

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 33.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a strong first-quarter performance with revenue of 999.5 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.1%, and a net profit of 131 million RMB, up 27.3% year-on-year, driven by offline growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to strengthen its competitive advantage in key provinces, with refined operations and product structure optimization likely to support a stable increase in net profit margin [1][4]. - The e-commerce channel is anticipated to regain growth momentum as operational strategies are optimized [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue from offline channels reached 650 million RMB, a 49% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in provinces outside the core areas, which saw a 125.1% increase [2]. - The overall gross margin for Q1 2025 was 53.3%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year, primarily due to changes in cost allocation for e-commerce logistics [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 13.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 372 million RMB, 487 million RMB, and 657 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 29%, 31%, and 35% respectively [4]. - The estimated revenue for 2025 is 4,469 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 37.32% [6]. Valuation - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 38 times for 2025, with a target price of 33 RMB, reflecting its growth potential in the southwestern market and nationwide expansion [4][8].