高盛：全球经济总结

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the US economy, with a 12-month recession probability revised from 45% to 65% [3] Core Insights - The US is expected to experience weak growth of just 0.5% on a Q4/Q4 basis in 2025, influenced by significant trade policy uncertainties and potential tariff impacts [3] - In the Euro area, growth is projected at only 0.3% for 2025, with the European Central Bank expected to continue cutting rates [3] - China's growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to 4%, with aggressive fiscal and policy easing anticipated to cushion the impact of tariffs [3] Summary by Sections US Economics - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise by about 16 percentage points, with broad-based tariffs not effectively targeting industries that could boost domestic employment [5] - Historical data suggests that a 10 percentage point increase in tariffs raises employment in protected industries by 0.4%, but a 1 percentage point increase in costs lowers employment by 0.6% [5] - The report estimates that tariff protection will create a net drag of approximately 480,000 jobs in downstream industries [5] Europe Economics - The Q1 GDP tracking estimate for Europe has been boosted to +0.4%, driven by a rise in core retail sales [7] - UK pay growth was below expectations at 5.9% in February, with a stable unemployment rate of 4.4% [7] - Euro area final inflation for March showed a headline rate of 2.18% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.43% [7][8] Asia/EM Economics - China's Q1 GDP growth was reported at 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with strong performance in industrial production and retail sales [9] - Despite high tariffs, US importers remain reliant on China for many goods, with 36% of US imports from China having over 70% reliance on Chinese supply [9] - The report notes that the USD-JPY exchange rate has implications for the Bank of Japan's policy, with the USDJPY dropping to 142 [11]