GRANDJOY(SZ:000031) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-21 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][19] Core Views - The company has experienced a contraction in revenue, with a total operating income of 357.9 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.70%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -29.8 billion yuan, compared to -14.7 billion yuan in 2023 [7][9] - Despite the revenue shrinkage, the company's property investment and operation remain stable, and the performance of held properties is strong. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is -8.3 billion yuan, 8.7 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan respectively [6][9] - The company is expected to gradually stabilize its real estate business, leading to a continuous release of performance [6][9] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 21.76% and a net profit margin of -7.15%, with a significant decline in operating cash flow, which decreased by 37.82% year-on-year to 66.17 billion yuan [7][9] - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 76.73% at the end of 2024, indicating a high level of leverage [7][9] - The company’s shopping centers reported sales of 401.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with a foot traffic of 366 million visitors, up 22% [8][9] Valuation Metrics - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at -0.19 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2026 and 2027 estimated at 13.5 and 7.7 respectively [6][9] - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to be 1.2 in 2025, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to its book value [9][9]