HLGF(SH:600346) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-21 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong profitability resilience, with a focus on performance elasticity and high dividends in the future [1][6] - The company has ended its peak capital expenditure phase, shifting its operational focus towards meticulous cost control, reducing debt, and enhancing dividends [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 236.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.63%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.04 billion yuan, up 2.01% year-on-year [5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching 1.939 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 61.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 78.4% [5] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.142 billion yuan, 11.395 billion yuan, and 12.324 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.30, 1.62, and 1.75 yuan [5][8] Sales and Margins - In 2024, the sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 19.97 million tons, 13.67 million tons, and 5.64 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.7%, -3.8%, and +37.9% [6] - The revenue from refining products, PTA, and new materials in 2024 was 108.14 billion yuan, 68.12 billion yuan, and 41.76 billion yuan respectively, with gross margins of 13.13%, 3.39%, and 14.11% [6] Cost and Pricing - The average prices for key raw materials in 2024 were 692.98 yuan/ton for coal, 8,058.55 yuan/ton for butanediol, 4,208.28 yuan/ton for crude oil, and 6,981.94 yuan/ton for PX, showing various percentage changes compared to 2023 [6] Dividend Policy - The company distributed a cash dividend of 3.168 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.97% [7] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual exit of marginal refining capacities due to increased fuel oil import tariffs, which will favor high-quality development in the refining industry [7]