Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 565.67 HKD, corresponding to a 31X PE for 2026 [8][22]. Core Insights - The company is the largest player in the global fresh beverage market, focusing on providing high-quality, affordable drinks around 1 USD. It operates two major brands: "Mixue Ice City" for tea and "Lucky Coffee" for coffee, with a total of 46,500 stores expected by 2024. The company leverages an efficient end-to-end supply chain to create a vast infrastructure network that meets consumer demand for affordable, high-quality beverages, establishing significant competitive barriers [1][22]. - The business model is centered on "supply chain economies of scale," which disrupts traditional franchise strategies. The company maximizes demand through high-quality, affordable products, with a cup price in 2024 being only 5.7% of the average disposable income in China. The vertical integration of the supply chain reduces costs, enhancing efficiency and profitability [2][22]. - Future growth drivers include market penetration in lower-tier cities, international expansion in Southeast Asia, and the cross-brand synergy between "Lucky Coffee" and "Mixue," which is expected to create a non-symmetric competitive advantage [3][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a leader in the fresh beverage sector, with a focus on providing affordable drinks globally. It has established a robust store network and aims to expand further in both domestic and international markets [1][22]. Business Model - The company employs a unique business model that emphasizes supply chain efficiency and cost control, allowing it to offer high-quality products at competitive prices. This model is supported by a strong franchise system that enhances market reach [2][22]. Growth Potential - The company has significant growth potential, with opportunities for expansion in lower-tier cities and international markets. The report estimates that the domestic store count could reach between 69,000 to 80,000, while international stores could reach 19,000 in the medium term [3][22]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 5.29 billion, 6.44 billion, and 7.68 billion RMB for those years, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 13.93 RMB in 2025 to 20.23 RMB in 2027 [5][7][13].
蜜雪集团（02097）：1美元传奇：供应链革新成就全球现饮龙头