CATL(SZ:300750) Xinda Securities·2025-04-21 14:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 84.705 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.963 billion yuan, which is up 32.85% year-on-year, indicating significant profit growth driven by scale effects, cost optimization, and exchange rate gains [1][2] - The company's market share in the European power battery market has increased from 17% in 2021 to 38% in 2024, with a projected shipment volume of 120 GWh in Q1 2025, of which 80% is for power batteries and 20% for energy storage [2] - The company is expanding its market presence through partnerships, including a framework agreement with Sinopec to build a nationwide battery swap network and a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO to create the largest and most advanced passenger vehicle battery swap service network globally [3] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 400.917 billion yuan in 2023 to 637.807 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 44.121 billion yuan in 2023 to 95.175 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 20.4% [4] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 19.2% in 2023 to 28.1% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The updated net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 63.888 billion yuan, 79.051 billion yuan, and 95.175 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.9%, 23.7%, and 20.4% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 16.0 and 12.9 times, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5]