科兴制药（688136）：海外制剂业务高增长，在研创新药具备出海潜力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience high growth in its overseas formulation business, with innovative drugs in development showing potential for international markets [5][7] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is projected at 1.407 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.75%, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 1.259 billion RMB - 2024: 1.407 billion RMB (11.75% YoY growth) - 2025E: 1.684 billion RMB (19.68% YoY growth) - 2026E: 2.071 billion RMB (22.98% YoY growth) - 2027E: 2.650 billion RMB (27.96% YoY growth) [6][8] - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2023: -190 million RMB - 2024: 31 million RMB - 2025E: 95 million RMB - 2026E: 193 million RMB - 2027E: 330 million RMB [6][8] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: -0.95 RMB - 2024: 0.16 RMB - 2025E: 0.48 RMB - 2026E: 0.97 RMB - 2027E: 1.65 RMB [6][8] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: -11.70% - 2024: 1.93% - 2025E: 5.51% - 2026E: 10.05% - 2027E: 14.63% [6][8] Business Growth Drivers - The overseas sales revenue is expected to reach 224 million RMB in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 61.96% [7] - The company has made significant progress in registering new products in international markets, including the approval of albumin paclitaxel in the EU [7] - The innovative drug pipeline includes several candidates at various stages of development, indicating potential for future revenue growth [7]