星湖科技（600866）：24年净利新高，25Q1再创佳绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 9.60 [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 9.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of RMB 40 billion, with a net profit of RMB 4.7 billion, exceeding expectations due to cost improvements and reduced non-recurring losses [1][5]. - The amino acid market is expected to improve due to rising soybean meal prices and reduced substitution demand [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 173 billion, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 39% [1]. - The feed additive segment saw a revenue increase of 4% to RMB 117 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 4.8 percentage points to 17% [2]. - The food additive segment experienced a revenue decline of 13% to RMB 42 billion, with a gross margin decrease of 1.2 percentage points to 12.2% due to falling prices of monosodium glutamate [2]. Q1 2025 Performance - In Q1 2025, the feed additive revenue decreased by 1% year-on-year and 46% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 27.5 billion, while the food additive revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year but increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 9.7 billion [3]. - The average market prices for lysine and threonine showed slight increases year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in the amino acid market [3]. Market Outlook - The market prices for lysine and threonine are projected to improve, supported by rising soybean meal prices and the approach of peak season [4]. - The company is advancing its 600,000-ton corn deep processing project in Xinjiang, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of RMB 13.2 billion, RMB 14.1 billion, and RMB 15.9 billion respectively [5]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.80, with a target price based on a 12x PE ratio [5].