SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-22 05:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company expects a net profit growth of 35% in 2025, followed by 11.2% and 8.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][4] Business Segments - The coal business has a certified production capacity of 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. In Q1 2025, coal prices decreased, with the average price of Yancheng anthracite coal at 1,240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum business has a production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with the average price of aluminum in Q1 2025 at 20,433 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The company anticipates an increase in coal production to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025, supported by the technological upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5]