JUNEYAOAIR(603885) 信达证券·2025-04-22 07:59Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2] Core Views - The company benefited from an increase in turnover, achieving a revenue of 22.095 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 914 million yuan, up 17.52% year-on-year [2] - The domestic passenger load factor remains high, while there is still room for improvement in the load factor of international routes [2] - The fleet size has expanded, with utilization rates exceeding pre-2019 levels [2] - Unit costs have decreased due to falling oil prices and improved utilization rates [2] - The impact of tariff policies has increased uncertainty regarding industry supply and costs [2] - Profit forecasts indicate net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 34.4%, and 18.8% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 22.095 billion yuan, a 9.95% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 914 million yuan, reflecting a 17.52% increase year-on-year [4] - The quarterly net profits for 2024 were 370 million, 115 million, 780 million, and -360 million yuan, showing significant fluctuations [2] - The company’s total turnover increased by 19.9% year-on-year, while unit revenue per passenger kilometer decreased by 9.6% [2] Operational Metrics - The passenger load factor reached 84.6%, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a load factor of 87.1%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The fleet size grew to 127 aircraft by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 10 aircraft [2] - Fleet utilization improved to 11.53 hours, an increase of 1.19 hours year-on-year [2] Cost Structure - The unit cost per available seat kilometer decreased by 5.8% year-on-year, with fuel costs down by 7.4% [2] - The average price of aviation fuel fell by 7.0% year-on-year, contributing to the reduction in unit costs [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.284 billion, 1.725 billion, and 2.049 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.58, 0.78, and 0.93 yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the next three years are projected to be 22.13, 16.47, and 13.87 times, respectively [4]