Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-04-22 09:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the expansion of concerns about the global economic downturn risk caused by mutual tariff imposition between China and the US, crude oil prices have weakened significantly recently and are consolidating at a low level, and the macro - expectation has also turned significantly weaker. In the short term, the macro - pessimistic expectation may accelerate the implementation of polyester production reduction plans. Under the pessimistic demand expectation, the main game point in the near future will revolve around whether ethane - based ethylene glycol can bring about a reduction in supply [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the polyester industry. Positive factors include the expected large - scale loss of ethane - based ethylene glycol profit due to domestic counter - tariff measures, potential shutdowns in the future, the implementation of coal - based ethylene glycol maintenance plans and additional unexpected maintenance leading to a significant supply contraction, and market expectations for macro - policy stimulus to the economy as the Politburo meeting approaches. Negative factors include the further impact of US tariff increases on terminal textile and clothing export demand and the high hidden inventory of ethylene glycol factories, making effective destocking difficult to achieve in April [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are as follows: ethylene glycol is 3800 - 4400 yuan, PX is 5500 - 6200 yuan, PTA is 3900 - 4500 yuan, and bottle chips are 5100 - 5700 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 30.73% for ethylene glycol, 44.15% for PX, 39.28% for PTA, and 31.25% for bottle chips. The current volatility historical percentiles (3 - year) are 91.3% for ethylene glycol, 99.4% for PX, 93.6% for PTA, and 98.6% for bottle chips [2]. 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises can short ethylene glycol futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry interval of 4250 - 4350. They can also buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises can buy ethylene glycol futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry interval of 4000 - 4100. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of ethylene glycol if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% [2]. 3.3 Price and Related Data - Commodity Prices: Brent crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel on April 22, 2025, with a daily increase of $0.3 and a weekly increase of $1.7. Other commodities such as naphtha CFR Japan, toluene FOB Korea, and various polyester - related futures and spot prices also had corresponding price changes [4][7]. - Spreads and Basis: There are data on various spreads such as TA1 - 5 month spread, EG1 - 5 month spread, and basis such as TA main - contract basis, EG main - contract basis, etc., showing different degrees of changes [7]. - Processing Fees and Profits: Data on processing fees such as gasoline reforming spread, aromatics reforming spread, and profits of polyester products like POY, DTY, FDY, etc., are provided, with varying degrees of daily and weekly changes [7]. - Sales Ratios: The sales ratios of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips are presented, with the polyester filament sales ratio at 59.1% on April 22, 2025, showing an increase compared to the previous period [8].