Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.80 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 40 times the earnings per share for 2025 [2][11][5]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin forecasts downward for 2025, while increasing the expense ratio. The earnings per share estimates for 2025-2027 are revised to 0.42, 0.51, and 0.58 CNY respectively, down from an earlier forecast of 0.75 CNY for 2025 [2][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.855 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 147 million CNY, down 47.1% year-on-year. The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 515 million CNY, a decline of 16.5% year-on-year [10][11]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "focusing on core + innovation to break through," aiming to enhance its product offerings and market presence, particularly in the snack channel [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2023: 1,923 million CNY - 2024: 1,855 million CNY - 2025: 2,054 million CNY (10.7% growth) - 2026: 2,308 million CNY (12.4% growth) - 2027: 2,547 million CNY (10.4% growth) [4][10] - Profitability Metrics: - Gross Margin: - 2023: 38.7% - 2024: 34.0% (down 4.75 percentage points) - 2025: 36.7% - 2026: 37.3% - 2027: 37.7% [4][10] - Net Profit Margin: - 2023: 14.5% - 2024: 7.9% (down 6.5 percentage points) - 2025: 8.9% - 2026: 9.6% - 2027: 10.0% [4][10] - Earnings Per Share: - 2023: 0.64 CNY - 2024: 0.34 CNY - 2025: 0.42 CNY - 2026: 0.51 CNY - 2027: 0.58 CNY [4][10] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings Ratio: - 2023: 24.4 - 2024: 46.1 - 2025: 37.3 - 2026: 30.6 - 2027: 26.8 [4][10]
欢乐家：零食渠道增量，利润率暂时承压-20250422