SHENHUO COAL&POWER(SZ:000933) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-22 12:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company’s coal production capacity is 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. The average price of coal in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with the price of Yongcheng anthracite coal averaging 1240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 35%, 11.2%, and 8.5% respectively [3][7] Business Outlook - The coal and aluminum business is expected to see further growth, with coal production projected to increase to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025 due to technical upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up by 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's market management practices, which include focusing on core business, improving operational efficiency, and utilizing various strategies for market value management [5]