天润乳业（600419）：2024年报点评：业绩符合预期，25年业绩弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Tianrun Dairy [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with a projected revenue increase in 2025 and 2026 [4] - The company is expected to see improved profitability in 2025 and 2026 due to a recovery in net profit margins [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue is projected at 28.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while net profit is expected to be 0.44 billion yuan, a decrease of 69% [8] - The company anticipates revenue of 29.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 31.6 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.3 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan [4] - The report indicates a recovery in net profit margins in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year improvement of 3.4 percentage points [3] Market Dynamics - The decline in gross margin in 2024 is attributed to falling prices due to intense competition, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 percentage points [3] - The company has seen a steady expansion of its sales network outside its primary market, contributing to revenue growth [8] Cost Management - The report highlights an increase in asset impairment losses by 60% in 2024, primarily due to oversupply in the industry [3] - In Q4 2024, the company managed to reduce asset impairment losses by 65%, indicating improved cost control measures [3]